Published: 24 March 2026

The most significant factor determining how long a geopolitical event affects financial markets is the current state of the economy, known as the "Recession Rule."

• Absence of Recession: Without an accompanying recession, markets usually treat geopolitical events as temporary disruptions. Market focus quickly returns to corporate earnings and interest rates, resulting in a recovery within weeks.
• Coincidence with Recession: If the event coincides with or initiates a recession (e.g.,1973 Oil Embargo), the market downturn can be significantly extended, potentially taking years rather than months for a full recovery.

Historical Recovery Timelines

The length of market disruption has historically varied based on the nature of the event and underlying economic conditions:

	Event		Market Recovery	Notes
	Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)		Bottomed in 8 days. Recovered in 18 days.	One of the fastest recoveries on record.
	September 11th Attacks (2001)		Recovered in 31 days.	Initial 11% drop.
	Iraq Invasion of Kuwait (1990)		Recovery in 189 days.	Slower recovery as the conflict coincided with an emerging U.S. recession.
	Pearl Harbor (1941)		Recovery 307 days.	Slow recovery during war and a period of pre-existing economic difficulty.

 

Long-Term Market Resilience

Financial markets have proven to be resilient against geopolitical shocks. While declines are common during the period of uncertainty, declines tend to be brief unless the event disrupts global supply chains, corporate earnings, or the broader economy. Historically, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after a geopolitical shock approximately 70–75% of the time.

 

Published: 24 March 2026

The U.S. equity markets experienced a significant relief rally on Monday, as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease.  The major indices recovered strongly from last week's losses, finishing the session with gains of over one percent.

Index	Closing	Change
S&P 500	6,580.25	+74.52
Nasdaq	21,948.55	+299.15

The market's apparent catalyst was President Trump’s announcement of a five-day postponement of planned military strikes against the Iranian energy infrastructure, to allow for negotiations.  This resulted in a 10% drop in oil prices and a decline in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

The CBOE VIX, fell after reaching an intraday high of 31.04 to close at 24.36.

• Closing Level: 24.36
• Daily Change: -2.42 (-9.04%)

Key Market Drivers

• Energy: Crude oil prices fell following the news of postponed military action. 
• Sector Winners: Airline and travel stocks were among the top performers responding to the prospect of lower fuel costs.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: While the rally was broad, analysts noted conflicting reports from Tehran, Iran, where officials denied that any formal talks had taken place.

 

Published: 22 March 2026

The U.S. stock market declined for a fourth consecutive week as conflict in the Middle East continued and the Federal Reserve announced no rate change.  The market experienced a broad-based sell-off and the Russell 2000 moved into correction territory. 

Sector Performance

The market saw a sharp rotation as investors fled growth and cyclical sectors for defensive havens. 

• Energy was an outlier and top performer, gaining as global oil prices (Brent crude) rose nearly 9% for the week to approximately $112 a barrel.
• Financials ended the week under pressure with a marginal gain of 0.19% at the Friday close.
• Technology was among the hardest hit, falling 2.1% for the week with broader retreats in AI-related issues including Nvidia.
• Utilities stocks saw significant selling pressure, dropping over 4% on Friday alone.
• Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors each experienced declines throughout the week due to reduced consumer confidence and rising energy costs. 

CBOE VIX

The VIX rose as trading anxiety increased, with the VIX up approximately 80% year-to-date. 

• Friday Close: The VIX ended the week at 26.78, an 11.3% rise.
• The Weekly High: The Quadruple Witching Friday session saw the VIX at an intraday high of 29.28 approaching a shift into a high-volatility territory.

Published: 19 March 2026

March 18, 2026, was a difficult day for Wall Street as the major indexes fell sharply following the Federal Reserve FMOC announcement and continuing geopolitical tensions.  The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward $110 per barrel, fueling fears of "stagflation", high inflation paired with slowing growth.

The major averages fell late in the day after the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% and appeared to signal fewer rate cuts.

• Energy & Conflict: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East—specifically disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—pushed Brent crude toward $110 per barrel, fueling fears of "stagflation" (high inflation paired with slowing growth).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose as investors looked for protection against a sudden downturn.

• Closing: 25.09

• +12.16% (from prior close 22.37)